NHL Writer Speculates Connor McDavid Could Leave Oilers for Maple Leafs in 2026 Free Agency: A Shift That Could Change the League Forever
A new wave of speculation has sent shockwaves through the NHL community this week, following comments by a respected hockey writer suggesting that Connor McDavid — the face of the Edmonton Oilers and arguably the greatest player of his generation — could consider joining the Toronto Maple Leafs when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026.
While nothing is set in stone and McDavid himself has remained tight-lipped about his long-term future, the very idea of a potential move has fans and analysts buzzing. Could the Ontario native actually return home to suit up for the Leafs? Is Edmonton’s window to win with McDavid and Draisaitl closing? And what would a McDavid move mean for the broader landscape of the NHL?
Let’s break down the speculation, its context, and what a move of this magnitude might look like.
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The Rumor: A Potential Shift in 2026
The speculation was reignited by James Mirtle, a senior NHL writer for The Athletic, during a recent podcast episode. Mirtle suggested that league insiders are keeping a close eye on McDavid’s situation in Edmonton, particularly with his current contract set to expire on July 1, 2026. By then, McDavid will be 29 — still in his prime — and potentially looking for a new challenge or a better shot at the Stanley Cup.
Mirtle floated the Toronto Maple Leafs as a legitimate contender should McDavid hit the open market. Not only is McDavid a native of Richmond Hill, Ontario, but the Leafs are also known for their financial muscle, passionate fanbase, and desire to land a marquee talent who could push them over the hump in the playoffs.
“Don’t be surprised if the McDavid-to-Toronto buzz starts to heat up,” Mirtle said. “Especially if Edmonton continues to fall short of expectations.”
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Why the Leafs?
There are several reasons why the Maple Leafs would make sense as a destination:
1. Homecoming Appeal: McDavid grew up in Ontario and was a lifelong Leafs fan. The emotional pull of playing in front of family and representing his hometown team could be a huge factor.
2. Marketing Potential: While Edmonton is a hockey-mad market, Toronto is the NHL’s media capital. A player like McDavid would see his brand skyrocket even higher in a city like Toronto.
3. Championship Aspiration: The Leafs, despite their postseason struggles, have consistently been one of the NHL’s top regular-season teams. With Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner (if he re-signs), and William Nylander, they’re perennially in the playoff conversation. Adding McDavid could finally end Toronto’s infamous Stanley Cup drought.
4. Salary Cap Structure: With several Leafs contracts expiring around 2026 — including Marner’s and possibly Tavares’ — Toronto could have the cap flexibility needed to sign McDavid, especially if some core reshuffling occurs.
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Edmonton’s Position: Clock Is Ticking
From the Oilers’ perspective, the speculation is concerning but not entirely surprising. While McDavid has repeatedly expressed loyalty to Edmonton, frustrations over postseason exits — particularly the team’s inability to capture a Stanley Cup despite boasting two generational talents — have raised questions about how long he’ll stay.
The Oilers have until 2026 to prove they can build a championship-caliber team around McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who himself becomes a UFA in 2025. If Edmonton fails to secure a Cup by then or takes a step back in competitiveness, the narrative around McDavid potentially leaving will only intensify.
As one Western Conference GM anonymously told The Athletic: “If they lose Draisaitl and still haven’t won anything, it’s hard to imagine Connor staying — no matter how much he loves the city or the fans.”
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What Would It Mean for the NHL?
A move of this magnitude would be seismic for the NHL. McDavid leaving the Oilers — the team that drafted him first overall in 2015 and molded him into the league’s most electrifying player — would shift the power dynamic in the league.
Eastern Conference Shake-Up: McDavid joining the Leafs would instantly make Toronto the most star-studded roster in hockey, perhaps eclipsing even Colorado or Tampa Bay in terms of pure firepower.
Canadian Rivalries Intensify: A McDavid move would deepen the rivalry between Edmonton and Toronto, potentially creating must-watch hockey if the two teams were to meet in a Stanley Cup Final — something that hasn’t happened between two Canadian teams since 1989.
Legacy Questions: Leaving Edmonton without winning a Cup could impact McDavid’s legacy. Some fans and analysts might criticize the move as abandoning ship, while others would argue he’s earned the right to chase a title elsewhere.
Impact on the Oilers: The departure of both McDavid and Draisaitl within two years would be a devastating blow for the Oilers, potentially ushering in a painful rebuild.
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What McDavid Has Said
Publicly, McDavid has remained composed and committed to the Oilers.
“I love playing in Edmonton. The fans are great, the organization’s been good to me, and we’re trying to win,” he said in a 2024 postseason interview.
However, he’s also been clear about his ambitions.
“I want to win. That’s what drives me.”
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The Bottom Line
It’s only speculation — for now. But with 2026 not all that far away in NHL terms, conversations about Connor McDavid’s future are becoming more than idle chatter. As the Oilers face immense pressure to deliver in the next two seasons, the possibility of the world’s best player exploring free agency — and potentially joining the Toronto Maple Leafs — has become one of the most compelling storylines in hockey.
Only time will tell if the speculation turns into reality. But one thing is clear: the countdown to 2026 just got a lot more interesting.